Every time shit is going on in Israel, it always puts me in an existential state of "there but for the grace of G-d go I" given the whole being conceived on a kibbutz and born in the city of the most bloody fought over inches of land throughout history and every official government document I've ever had lists my place of birth differently depending on current politics of place names..... (and no, I have never visited the place I was born into this life -- to do so would have me detained to serve in the IDF and in this life I am not good at following anyone's commands if they go against my own code of ethics. And yes, I realize that the passport I travel on makes me a target that closes much of the world from me to ever traveling there. And yes, Iwas in Kindergarten when I first started wrestling with the existential crisis of being so hated that people who don't know me never met me would kill me for WHAT I am without knowing any damn thing about WHO I am and that not a damn thing I could ever do would change that hatred that others would see as a rationalization to hurt or kill me without any moral qualms for being an American woman born in Jerusalem to Jewish parents.....which is probably why no form of bullying but especially female bullying has ever phased me because what the hell do I care for your "can't sit with us" ostracism other than to think you're a shitty human who enjoys casual cruelty so I don't desire to interact with have in my life compared to "there are literally people in this world would kidnap and murder me just for the accident of where I was born." and yeah, both my parents but especially my da are complète Hawks on the subject of Israel...they were after all going to build their life there until a car bomb across the street from his work made then wonder if they wanted their daughter to grow up so far from.all her family speaking a different language from them.)

Also. The news keeps reporting that it's Hamas supported by Iran. But while the evidence is obvious it was Hamas there's no evidence given that this action/timing was supported by Iran, and for once they're keeping silent not claiming it. And actually, the timing doesn't make sense for them, it's actively bad given they were JUST negotiating to unfreeze some of their oil sale banking account desperately needed funds for humanitarian aid where the physical objects are sent them not even money. US intelligence and Israeli intelligence have actually very explicitly stated that what little Intel they have, they can find no linked or ties or comms to Iran about THIS attack. And here's the thing with realpolitik and any student of Machiavelli let alone the ancient world can tell you this -- you have to ask "who benefits?" and also "who has the means?" if you want to get to the true first causes moving the pieces on the board. And the most "who has the means" important question is the ability to satellite coordinate the attack AND hide/scramble the comms and the list is incredibly short: US, Israel, China, and Russia. That's it. Now, who has the geopolitical means to help move the arms and the money within the region? Not really China. So the list is now US, Israel, Russia (via Syria and North African mercenaries control.) Let's ask who benefits by this destabilization? US? Well, it does potentially break budgetary and appointment gridlock and take government shutdowns off the chess board, but it causes more problems than gains. Israel? It benefits Netanyahou with his desire to aggregate military control and reduce democratic norms within Israel. It's a high price to even allow this intelligence to go unacted upon and buried and would take more than the prime minister for that to happen -- but a ruthless power hungry grab by military might make the call to ALLOW it to happen to capitalize on it even though you wouldn't organize it. China? They only overtly gain by it if they had simultaneously launched attack to take back Taiwan, all they gain now in this timing is wealth building while others spend on military -- and that was already happening elsewhere notably in Ukraine.  And it's not China's style -- they crave knowledge via espionage and soft power building empires that last centuries and always play the long game. They gain the least. Now what about Russia? Russia gains 1) removal of the Syria military base attack deaths out of the media 2) the recent Ukraine attacks on civilians the UN is already investigating out of the news cycle because the dead in Israel is a bigger story 3) the staunchest intelligence and military allies of Ukraine now have to split military focus and monetary budgeting and Ukraine will lose support at a critical time by the destabilization of a major attack on Israel. Russia gains a hell of a lot strategically and tactically.

So. Who has the means at global comms level, means of moving the arms within the region, AND gains major benefits for their own geopolitical military needs/goals? There is one answer. And it's fucking obvious.  And the answer is Putin in Russia. Now you can't make that claim as an intelligence agency without proof, especially with how close we are to WW3 direct fighting not just by proxy battles... but basic logic of realpolitik tells you who has the means and the most to gain by this happening NOW. And no matter who funds/organizes attacks, everybody knows that Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran WILL ultimately take credit for any successful attack against Israel. So. Who was the one moving the chess pieces to organize this and was able to keep it hidden? Realpolitik tells you the answer is obvious.

Now. What level of responsibility do IDF/Netanyahou/American intelligence agencies have for ALLOWING this to happen after gaining intelligence it was in the works but perhaps not knowing how bad it is? Well. That could be argued many ways given lack of proof and able to see how there ARE some geopolitical benefits to allowing it even if you and nothing to do with creating/planning it. But you'd have to be ruthlessly cold and justifying more good comes of the chess gains than the lives lost -- and I don't think current heads of state us Israel/US are that cold blooded against their own citizenry so that is an ethics judgement I'm not willing to make about anyone without evidence. But I also won't rule it out. 

And if the realpolitik logic is true, well.... just remember that right before this, on Sept 22, it was announced that Biden had agreed to send Zelensky long range missiles to Ukraine capable of hitting major cities in Russia. Military is already setting up their pieces for if/when the behind the scenes string pulling of Russia goes to declared war not proxy wars....

Anyway. I'm not the only person able to ask the questions instead of assuming it's the "obvious enemies" who planned this and executed it all by themself.  Then again, very few people have even begun the beginners version of learning how to ask the right questions at the right time in the right way. And right now, the right questions here are "who has the means to have coordinated this happening without USA-Israeli intelligence knowing" and "who benefits most by this happening at this time" and the answer to both those vital questions is not the typical anti-Israel suspects that everyone else assumes is the source of this happening right NOW. It's not who is taking credit for starting up the proxy war on this front, it's who organized it, hid it, and chose this moment to launch it -- and WHY this was the time to spring it vis à vis the biggest battlegrounds of the proxy war going on in Ukraine..... 

My advice as a modern day student of Machiavelli, Sun Tzu, and Alexander the Great is to keep your eye on watching what gets lost or buried right now and how it helps Putin with his attempts to conquer Ukraine as a result of what's happening in Israel and everything it pushes out of the news cycle. That's where the important chess pieces are moving for the next battle(s).....  Things are moving faster than most Americans realize, and having next year be an election year (potentially THE election year of our lifetime given all the domestic posturing of the terrifying white nationalist Christians) and things are on the precipice of a scary nobody has been through within their current lifetime, if ever.....  shit is terrifyingly on the brink of no safe dateline s remaining to avoid a massive loss of life in battlefields on a scale of millions potentially billions when it interrupts global food supplies worse than taking the Ukraine bread basket offline has ALREADY disrupted global food supplies causing the current inflation in all foodstuffs.... and that's before the chaos patterns of climate change in the mix of the world geopolitical stage and evangelical christo-fascist fanatics in the states and all the other forms of fanaticism-fascism on the rise in so many places around the world.... 

P. S. Also. Yes I posted another post while the moon was in Cancer, but I set it back to private to authors a day or two after. It was a lot of emotions, mostly about why I was upset with me for letting Eric so easily back past my defenses raising my hopes in him/the bond with nothing concrete to make me believe he has changed at all or even WANTS me in his life this life.....it affects a very small circle of people and now moon is in Leo I'm too proud to have it public admitting my weaknesses in my defenses and doesn't need to be here for n'importe qui.